Sales, Pipeline & Deal Economics
What Is Win Probability?
Win probability is the estimated likelihood that an opportunity will close, usually expressed as a percentage tied to its pipeline stage or judged by the sales team. It is the factor that turns a deal's full value into its expected value - and, for a partner, weights the expected rebate so likely payouts are separated from long shots.
Why it matters to IT channel partners. A rebate forecast built on raw pipeline overstates what will land. Weighting each deal's expected rebate by its win probability gives a partner a realistic view of the incentive income actually coming - and shows which near-certain deals, if nudged, would secure a threshold this period. It keeps both the forecast and the quarter-end plan grounded.
Related terms
FAQ
It weights each deal's expected rebate by how likely it is to close, so the forecast reflects probable income rather than the full, optimistic pipeline value.
See a rebate forecast weighted by win probability → Explore the pipeline module