Sales, Pipeline & Deal Economics
What Is Expected Profit (on a Deal)?
Expected profit is the profit a deal is likely to return, weighted by its probability of closing - margin multiplied by win probability. For a channel partner, the most useful version includes the rebate the deal would earn on the back end, so the figure reflects the true profit at stake, not just the front-end margin on the quote.
Why it matters to IT channel partners. Expected profit is how a partner compares deals fairly: a large, unlikely deal and a smaller, near-certain one can carry the same expected value. Adding the rebate layer sharpens it further, because two deals with equal margin can differ in expected profit once each vendor's incentives are applied. It is the number that should drive where the team spends its time.
Related terms
FAQ
It weights a deal's profit by its probability of closing. For partners, the profit input should include the expected rebate, so the figure captures back-end incentives as well as front-end margin.
Rank your pipeline by rebate-inclusive expected profit → Explore the pipeline module